Your data takes "winning" or "losing" as entirely random outcomes (like coin toss) but they can be heavily altered by the player. So unless you are a completely average player, this does not work. My longest winstreak is 16 but loss is only 8.
It's just a heuristic, of course Dota is not a coin toss (edited) and there are tons of other factors (different wr, you get tilted/play differenty after experiencing a streak etc.). Your win streak might be partially explained by you being calibrated lower than your actual skill and climbing quickly to your "true" position etc.
I should have emphasized it works a) only approximately, b) on average c) on large number of players and games.
I was just about to ask about this, because for example my last few games. I went 16/1 on lion and did well with my radiance Lifestealer. Both my teams were pretty good then suddenly I load up to a new game where I secondpick lycan after someone went meepo firstpick, me assuming hed be mid picked lycan to compliment the pace, the we got thirdpick SF, fourthpick PA archon claiming he’s a smurf and barking at me saying lycan is an offlaner. And lastpick lion who never stunned when you expect him to which baits you to your death, turns out he saves his mana cause he has no manadrain. Anyways, Meepo squats in my lane and says he’s staying there till he can JUNGLE oh joy. SF dies like 10000 times to kunkka mid. Just when I was fighting the urge to abandon I just resorted to hitting creeps and towers. I died too many times to Sk, pudge riki and kunkka. but just kept throwing myself at towers.
However
I took my fate into my own hands
While my team fights nonstop and eventually dies the enemy team was having a blast killing them, I took tower after tower
And the ancient.
Turns out the enemy team was just as ass. And I was on lycan lmao
I like to think I have some form of control in whatever valve throws at me and it made winning that much sweeter, granted my score wasn’t what it could have been and my team will flame and feed nonstop but in that lycan game I felt my pushing mattered and Inwon despite everything.
I heard from my philosophy class something about taking your destiny into your own hand and your fate is the direct result of your actions. There is no higher being (valve) that predetermines meaning and outcome into your life(or games of dota). This philosophy has made me tilt so much less because I have grown to accept that dot isn’t perfect but if I can manage to be a factor in the game, I have already gained something.
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Wanna know how to win consistently? Only play when you are feeling well or in peak condition
dota is a coin toss since 7.00 and i refuse to actually tryhard in 6k games, unless i'm playing with people i know
Dota is a coin toss, 50/50 chance
They are: Queue or Don't Queue
If I queue I lose
If I don't queue I don't lose
Simple math.
Wanna know how to win consistently? Only play when you are feeling well or in peak condition
This is basically how i got from divine 0 to divine 5 in a month. I dont understand people who play 10+ ranked games in a day. You also need to get your real life conditions in order. Eating well and getting enough sleep is pretty important for your playing abilities.
Cant understand shit. If I was good at maths I wouldnt have been been playing dota xD
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It seems to be a recurrent theme on this forum. After detecting a winstreak, Gaben probably starts to hate you and tries to put you down, right? Right? No. All of this is a result of simple probability and our human flawed perception of how randomness works. We tend to detect patterns where there are none and fabulate immensely complex explanations for these patterns which are just noise in data.
If you win or lose two or three times in succession, you probably won't suspect that anything fishy is going on. But can you experience losing 10 times in a row without anything being rigged? ZYu can, it's just a matter of time (number of played games/tosses...).
A simple example: Let's say your longterm WR is 50%. The estimated longest chain of wins (or loses) is log₂ n, where n is the number of games played. So, if you have played 128 games, there is a good chance that you have had a streak of 7 wins or loses. On average, it takes just a bit more than 1k games to experience a 10 winning or losing streak.
It works pretty well for me - 5800 matches, longest winning streak: 12, longest losing streak: 11.
5800 is between 2¹² (= 4096) and 2¹³ (= 8192). To experience a 13 winning/losing streak, I will have to play a few more thousands of games. Check your own stats in Dotabuff and tell us what you've found!
So no, there is most likely no wizardry. These things happen all the time.