He spins a giant wheel and which ever hero it lands on he flips a coin , heads he buffs the hero and tails he needs it .
It's mostly based on pick rate. A hero could be picked every game of the tournament, with a 10% winrate, and still get nerfed, because Valve
Icefrog is a extremely smart genius,nobody have game sense as he does,he have dota space in his blood he can play 5v5 in his head with every hero.
He show his perfect game sense many times and actually every patch.
You can blame him why he does this or why this.But youre just not see his points,not understand game as he does.
Dota is icefrog understand this.
Decapitated chicken decides what happens to each hero. They kill hundred chickens every fortnight.
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With all these tournaments they have plenty of data for pro play. If I were to decide I would probably keep it simple say 5 heroes went unpicked I would buff those 5 heroes and nerf the 5 most contested heroes (if 15 went unpicked and visa versa). They tend to make an enormous amount of changes on patches though just trying to get some insight on other people's suspicions.